The GeoExtreme project, Norwegian geohazards in a changing climate

Various types of landslides and avalanches (snow, rock, clay, and debris) pose the main geohazards in Norway. Such events have caused more than 2000 deaths in Norway over the last 150 years, and considerable damage to property and the natural and built environment. Geohazards are often triggered as a function of distinct meteorological conditions.
Climate Changes, and a possible increase of extreme weather events in the next 50 years may lead to change in frequency and type of landslides and avalanches. The main objective of the four-year integrated research project GeoExtreme is therefore to assess the geohazard situation in Norway over the next 50 years. The Project is organized in four modules. Module A aims to investigate the coupling between climatic parameters and the occurrence of avalanches and landslides. To do this, a database of landslide and avalanche events has been established.
The time and location of these events are compared to interpolated meteorological datasets for the last 40 years. Regional climate scenarios for the next 50 years are produced in module B with special emphasis on extreme events of precipitation and wind. The climate scenarios runs are based on A1B emission scenario and the simulations have high enough resolution to resolve the most important meteorological processes involved. Module C uses the results of module A and B to produce a picture of possible future geohazards in Norway. The study is concentrated on four key areas representing different climate zones in Norway.
In order to quantify changes in slide and avalanche hazard, the initial step was to describe the now situation in the four study sites, where hazardous areas have been classified according to probability (hazard maps). On the basis of future climate scenarios a change of release probability, will be estimated. The results of the case studies will be used for a regional extrapolation of the effects of future climate scenarios on geohazard problem. The socioeconomic implications of geohazards in Norway, both in the past, and under the predicted future climate scenarios are studied in Module D. Important parameters are costs related to damage by natural disasters as well as to mitigation measures, ability to learn by experience, changes in preparedness, and impact on policy makers.