Initial risks to be observed before 2050

30 December 2006 | 05:10 Code : 12278 Geoscience events
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He said besides environmental effects, climate change had several serious....

  He said besides environmental effects, climate change had several serious socio-economic consequences for the less-developed countries in particular. “First of all, the poorest developing countries will be affected by climate change even though they have contributed little to the problem. Their low incomes make it difficult to finance adaptation. The total economical losses due to climate-related natural disasters was a few billions dollars in the first years of the 1990s. These figures have increased year by year to 200 billion dollars in 2005,” he noted.According to İncecik, the risks increase very substantially and both the emission scenarios and rising temperatures indicate the initial risks before 2050. He thus calls for every country, every sector in the economy and every community to take responsibility and cut GHG emissions in line with the Kyoto Protocol, the only international instrument obliging reductions in greenhouse emissions.The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol provide the only international framework for combating climate change. The main goal of this convention is to establish national programs for reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions at 1990 levels,” he said, adding: “Based on the UNFCC framework, the Kyoto Protocol sets legally binding limits on GHG emissions in developed countries and aims to reduce a total of six greenhouse gases emissions to 5.2 percent, below the level they were in 1990, during 2008-2012, the first commitment period. The United States, the world's biggest carbon dioxide emitter with its 7.1 billion tons of emissions, did not ratify the protocol. China, the world's second largest GHG producer, ratified the protocol, but as a developing country China is not required to reduce its emissions*. This is the protocol's weak side. Because, reducing the risks of climate change requires a strong collective action of not only developed countries but also developing countries.Despite all the pessimistic background, the protocol seems to have proved its success in some extent according to the data given by İncecik. İncecik said Annex I Parties** referred to in the protocol, such as all EIT Parties --countries with economies in transition -- (except for Slovenia) generally succeeded in keeping their emissions under the 1990 levels since they had much lower emission levels than the targets in line with the Kyoto protocol. “Non-EIT Parties such as France, Germany, United Kingdom, Sweden, Greece, Iceland and Monaco are relatively close to their targets under the Protocol. Besides, all the Annex I Parties' sectoral emissions decreased from 1990 to 2004 with the greatest decrease in agriculture and industrial process. The smallest decrease was in the energy sector. The greatest increase occurred for transport.”

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