New Market Research Report: Turkey Power Report Q1 2011
The new Turkey Power Report from BMI forecasts the country will account for 8.37% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional power generation by 2015 and, after system losses and power industry usage, have a broadly balanced market. CEE power generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 2,581 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a recovery of 2.3% from the previous year. We forecast an increase in regional generation to 3,023TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 17.1% during 2010-2015.CEE thermal power generation in 2010 will have been about 1,284TWh, accounting for 49.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 1,449TWh, representing 12.8% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 47.9% - due to environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Turkish thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated at 158TWh, representing 12.32% of the regional total. In 2015, it will account for 13.80% of thermal generation.For Turkey, gas will have been the dominant fuel in 2010, accounting for an estimated 31.5% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 30.6%, coal at 29.1% and hydro having an 8.6% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,518mn toe by 2015, representing 17.00% growth over the period 2010-2015. Turkey’s estimated 2010 market share of 7.49% is set to rise to 8.56% by 2015. Turkey plans longer-term nuclear power construction, but currently makes no contribution to regional nuclear consumption.Turkey shares third place with Russia in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Rating, and is just one point behind second-placed Poland. It is difficult to expect Turkey to compete for regional leadership, and it may be unable to keep up with Russia over the long term. The current score reflects the substantial size of the country’s electricity market and infrastructure, a high proportion of (mostly hydro) renewables in the energy mix, average growth in PED and the region’s most rapid rate of population growth. Country risk factors to some extent offset the industry scores.BMI forecasts Turkish real GDP growth will average 5.3% a year between 2010 and 2015, with an assumed 2011 increase of 4.7%. Total population is expected to rise from 75.7mn in 2010 to 79.1mn by 2015, and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase 104% and 25%, respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 159TWh in 2010 to 209TWh in 2015.Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Turkish electricity generation of 59.2%, which is above average for the CEE region. This equates to 24.6% in the 2015-2020 period, down from 27.8% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to ease from 33.8% in 2010-2015 to 24.9% during 2015-2020, representing 67.0% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 76% in hydro-power use during 2010-2020 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise 24% between 2010 and 2020. Details of BMI’s long-term forecasts can be found at the end of this report.